Most gunners are no good at math

[Kloaked Spirit]

I'm going to prove that gunning in the Oddthought games is just like every other style of play in the Oddthought games. Only a handful of people actually know their concepts inside and out, and can adapt to things. The rest of you just whine about it, and then eventually adapt when it becomes completely obvious that this is the dominant strategy of the day.

So here's the contest. I'm going to give you a scenario. You'll tell me the answer. Closest three people get a prize.

The prize is that you can either take a custom title for yourself, or set someone else's custom title. HTML is allowed provided it does not break the forum, and mods/admins have the final say on what is acceptable.

Ready? Here it is.

You have 1,000 vests (no thugs, no guns.) Tell me the number of guns that I must have in order to guarantee that you are jumped successfully by me. For your calculations you are to assume normal in-game variables *other than the 3x jump range*, and there is an actual answer behind it. I will not give any more hints to help you in your calculations.

Most recent guess is what I will go by, but I do have the right to disqualify you if all you're going to do is spam random guesses just for the sake of getting lucky. So come on! Show what you know!

*Obviously game admins need to keep out of the thread for obvious reasons*

Edit: If a gunner wishes not to go through the entire explanation here, I will allow 1 guess and only 1 guess by PM's.

[Diogee]

ok now if both are cartel less and both have the same amount of stanima it would take 1001 guns however there is no Guaranteed number of guns to win because of that evil cartel weight. Now if the answer you are looking for is a breakdown of cartel weight and other stanima BS than your not getting one from me :moon:


than again you might be looking for this answer

to guarantee a win you must have more guns from both your guns and cartel weight (* stanima) than they I have vests in cartel weight plus my 1000 (*stanima)

[CRAZY JAMAICAN]

hmmmm i must just get lucky when i gun, i would have no idea how many vests worthers have when i hit them, but i hardly ever fuck up and lose jumps when i gun.... all thankz to MF :D

im ganna say if all things are equal (cartel strenght and stanima equal) 1100

[supernova]

Because you said you can guarantee a win, I assume there is a cap in the defense one could get from a fellow cartel member. Let's say one can effectively contribute with 5% of the vests that are in the defender's league/range. This would yield a .05 * 3 * 19 = 2.85 x benefit.
Assuming max stamina on both sides, the worst case scenario is when you attack me without any bonus and I benefit of the full cartel defense. In this case you would need 3,850 guns.

I just gave an example of the way I think it works - but I would bet a bit lower.
Here's my guess:
- 2,900 for regular rooms
- 1,200 for Pro rooms

[swiss miss]

when does the contest end??
can i make multis to do some research?? :P

[Az]

i like it just, make them think.

[6m$SexGod]

I believe the answer you are looking would be quite simple to work out, but there is so many different variables, please could you specify a case study to make it easier to narrow down!

[Brick]

Worst case scenario would be me having 1000 vests with max stamina in the #1 cartel, all running junkies in places 1-20 and max stamina also. The gunner would have no cartel and a stamina of 14% (which i believe is the lowest you can have here without fucking something up i.e. refreshing too quickly).
A fair fight with cartels out and stamina at 100 would take about 1,250 guns. But the cartel strength and the gunner's low stamina to GUARANTEE a win, the numbers are going to be much more extreme and would actually be impossible in practice. In these circumstances, our gunner could not technically have this many guns, but I would say to guarantee the win without me prodding into the actual values of the game, I'd say he's need an 8/1 ratio over the worther, so 8,000 guns.

[6m$SexGod]

Well i would have to say 1800 guns would guarantee a win!

[THE HEAVY HITTA]

1263 guns gives u more gun worth than their vest worth :S

but it also is assuming ur cartel strenght is equal to theirs

[seasider]

brick makes a fair point about the fact that this needs to be narrowed a little. I can give a guess based on gunner and target being in relatively equally beneficial cartels but the example that brick describes is beyond my experience of successful gunning. so i'll give two guesses, one based on a realistic scenario of gunner and target being in relatively beneficial carts and one based on the unrealistic scenario of a lone gunner on 14% stam successfully gunning a vester in the most beneficial cartel possible on 200%

1) 1312 (estimate based on my experience)

2) 50,000 (total guess)

[Brick]

brick makes a fair point about the fact that this needs to be narrowed a little. I can give a guess based on gunner and target being in relatively equally beneficial cartels but the example that brick describes is beyond my experience of successful gunning. so i'll give two guesses, one based on a realistic scenario of gunner and target being in relatively beneficial carts and one based on the unrealistic scenario of a lone gunner on 14% stam successfully gunning a vester in the most beneficial cartel possible on 200%

1) 1312 (estimate based on my experience)

2) 50,000 (total guess)

Like the question states, you need a guarentee, granted my situation is highly unlikely, but it's possible. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

[DeadlyOther]

I say 1485 guns if both are on equal terms

[Brick]

I just thought of another situation.

Let's say for example you join on the last day and join a worther cartel that's #1 but had an open spot and were winning by enough that they don't mind your dumb-ass joining. So they have #1-19 spots in scores, all vests, high stamina. Enter my 1,000 vests with 29-30 days of the other 19 ppl having 4-5 million vests each. And the lone 14% gunner that joined on day 27. (I say this b/c of the available tokens, he'll still be within 3x the target.) At this point jumping him is impossible; your worth would be too high b/c the number of guns you'd need to jump him would place your worth far above 41 x 1,000 = worth of $41,000 + the number of junkies you needed to buy to get your stamina up to 200% which would be 34 junkies, plus cash in hand, so roughly a worth of $60,000. max guns you can have at this point is 180,000/30 = 6,000 guns if you have NOTHING but guns, which of course would still not be enough for a successful jump on him at 14% stamina in no cartel. The answer is technically such: a situation can arise in which a gunner can not successfully jump a person with 1,000 vests.

[steff]

42

(how long do we have to answer?)



- 2,900 for regular rooms
- 1,200 for Pro rooms

higher (it's higher if I understand KS correctly anyway)

[Alf uckem]

400,000 would guarentee a win

[Brick]

400,000 would guarentee a win

You wouldn't be able to jump them.

[Dymond]

You wouldn't be able to jump them.

LOL and we gave that guy a recognition thread...

[steff]

You wouldn't be able to jump them.

Why's that? The 1k vest guy coould have 500k thugs.

[Dymond]

Why's that? The 1k vest guy coould have 500k thugs.

KS didn't say the guy was a retard..

[steff]

You haven't heard how the pr0 gunnaz play. 1 vest : 1 gun : 1 thug.

[herojuana]

KS didn't say the guy was a retard..

..isnt that a given?

[Brick]

LOL and we gave that guy a recognition thread...

I'm working off of worst case scenarios if someone had 500,000 thugs they deserve to be brought out back and shot.

[Zeus]

Why's that? The 1k vest guy coould have 500k thugs.

3X jump limit

[steff]

3X jump limit

500k thugs isn't enough?

[Brick]

500k thugs isn't enough?

500,000 thugs @ $10 a pop in worth = 5 million worth + 1000 @ $41 = $5,041,000 total worth.

400,000 guns @ $30 a pop = $12,000,000 worth. Yes it's well within 3x.

[Dymond]

I remember MemoryMaker was going to run a thug only strat one round in FB.. how did that work for him?

[Brick]

I remember MemoryMaker was going to run a thug only strat one round in FB.. how did that work for him?

As well as Andrew Ang's hoarding strat.

[Brick]

500k thugs isn't enough?

but that's not a guarantee. I could say 1 billion guns, but their worth would have to be 99.99% invested in something other than vests (in the worst case scenario of course).

[OpticaliLLusion]

As well as Andrew Ang's hoarding strat.

lol

sorry....not bothered to do the math, but I had to laugh at that one

[KACK]

1001 guns. im not a guy who pays attention when he plays.

I remember MemoryMaker was going to run a thug only strat one round in FB.. how did that work for him?

i dont remember him doing it in fb, but he did do it in the other site that had dw. he was doing pretty good.

[Kloaked Spirit]

I know that I said assume all normal variables, but I do have to change one thing. Disregard the 3x range in play. You are correct in stating that you cannot guarantee a win if we keep that rule in play because the 3x range prohibits you from jumping them if they only have 1000 vests (I never stated I had thugs, but let's just keep it to just me having 1000 vests.)

I'll give Brick a prize as he was the first one to at least address this issue.

The 3 prizes still remain for those that can come up with the closest answer that does not have to take the 3x range rule into consideration.

[Forphucsake]

14,825 - Worst case scenario

[supernova]

I know that I said assume all normal variables, but I do have to change one thing. Disregard the 3x range in play. You are correct in stating that you cannot guarantee a win if we keep that rule in play because the 3x range prohibits you from jumping them if they only have 1000 vests (I never stated I had thugs, but let's just keep it to just me having 1000 vests.)

I'll give Brick a prize as he was the first one to at least address this issue.

The 3 prizes still remain for those that can come up with the closest answer that does not have to take the 3x range rule into consideration.

Are we still asuming the 200% stamina for the gunner?
In that case, let's say the max bonus is 20% / player in regular rooms and 10% / player in Pro rooms.

So, 4800 guns for the first scenario, 1400 guns for the second.
Is it me, or it starts to look more like gang math than gun math? :)

I believe the same formula, whatever it is, is true for attack bonus (i.e some low worthed gunner in a very strong gunning cartel being able to beat almost anyone in their range?). I tried this in hi5 a few months ago - as a late starter my worth was a few hundred times less than that of the top players. At first, I needed 100-200% stamina to beat people in my range. Then I moved to an average full gunning cartel, and things changed quite a lot. When I moved up to the top gunning cartel, I was expecting another noticeable change, but it didn't happen. Going under 50% was still a gamble ...

[steff]

You assume the lowest stamina for the gunner in no cartel and the highest stamina for the worther in a good cartel. (the most extreme stance to guarentee the win)

[Diogee]

omg now its actually possible to do... ah shit and why didnt I save that chat with Tim on cartel weight.... fuck it not worth my time still :P

[supernova]

You assume the lowest stamina for the gunner in no cartel and the highest stamina for the worther in a good cartel. (the most extreme stance to guarentee the win)

41.5 k

[Santo]

KS didn't say the guy was a retard..

Or from facebook :run:

[steff]

10001

edit - do we need to explain our answer?

[Ridgeback]

i could do it with 1 gun. admittedly i'd have 50,000 multis, but each would only have 1 gun! lmao

[Brick]

edit: 30,001

[Kloaked Spirit]

I'll give it until Midnight EST on 10/07. That would've given you all a week.

[Diogee]

ok i'll supply a answer but true it most likely will be wrong


4001 guns total guess but fuck it I dont care

the thing is I dont know if cartel weight caps cuz if it doesnt than there is no min number of guns to guarantee a win.

[THE HEAVY HITTA]

im sticking with my answer

1263 :S

[Diezel]

1333 guns

[BIGRICK]

667 guns


I can't be arsed to explain

[0siris]

1,450

[OpticaliLLusion]

Normal Conditions:

1000*38.5 = 38500
^ total vest worth

38500/30.5 = 1262.295082
^ vest worth / gun value = amount of guns needed to have equal worth

rounded up - 1263 (same as HH says)

and...worst case scenario:

gunner at 14% stam and no cartel vs. worther at 200% and full cartel
18571.428571 guns

^ a little birdie helped me with that one...cause I would never even bother trying to figure some bullshit scenario like that

[DeadlyOther]

Im sticking with my original guess 1485

[Todd]

1,275

[Kloaked Spirit]

Locked thread. Will review the answers sometime tomorrow and notify the winners.

[Kloaked Spirit]

Ok, so the economy went crazy and I was gone longer than expected.

The three closest guesses were Brick, Seasider, and Supernova. Plus Brick gets a second prize from the earlier comment that this would be pretty much an impossible thing to do in a real game situation.

I never expected anyone to get the answer right, as I'm positive that no one outside of game administration has all of the actual figures needed to make a precise guess. However, some of the thought process people put into it showed that some were capable of thinking on the right track.

The actual answer: When you factor in the worst case scenario for everything (min stamina and no cartel vs max stamina and super full vest filled cartel,) is 74667 guns necessary.

Random fact of the day: Defense is weighted more heavily than Offense. You do need slightly more than 1 gun to negate 1 vest, all else being equal.

All winners can PM me for their prize when they decide if they want the custom title of their own, or to change someone else's.

Edit: I can't read my own writing at night. Edited the winning number from what I read as 76667 to the actual 74667.

[seasider]

can't believe my guess was closer than all these mathematical equations

there's no substitute for experience ;)

[Brick]

All winners can PM me for their prize when they decide if they want the custom title of their own, or to change someone else's.

This is gonna get me into trouble:whistle:

[Jacx]

ahh shit and i had just got round to upsetting him with his current one!

[Brick]

woooooooo!

Can i change Jacx's? hehe